AL QAEDA IS STILL STRONG AND ACTIVE… IT IS TIME TO GO FULL                                                  STEAM AGAINST THEM                                        Prof Dr Colonel (Retired) K Prabhakar Rao 

                          The word AlQaeda has become world wide known as an infamous blood- thirsty terrorist organization that has dared to attack American main land. Even after five years of pursuit by the world’s most powerful military and intelligence net work, the top leaders are evading arrest and have regrouped. It is feared by most of the countries in the world. The top leaders of AlQaeda fled to lawless North West mountainous areas of Pakistan when Taliban fell from power under the combined onslaught of US led allied forces and Afghan Northern alliance forces. Osama Bin Laden with US $27 million bounty on his head   reportedly escaped from Tora Bora bombings in Afghanistan with his most trusted lieutenants. His escape from the caves is attributed to refusal to deploy American ground troops by Pentagon. (1). Apart from them, the   Taliban  terrorists with AlQaeda connection   such as Mullah  Dadullah( The former Taliban intelligence chief), Mullah Omar(Founder of the movement), Maulvi Obaidullah(Former Defense Minister), Jalaluddin  Haqani( Former  minister of tribal  affairs) escaped  from the US forces and  are reportedly hiding in Pakistan. Al Qaeda’s deputy Ayman Al Zawahiri one of the most wanted criminal after Bin Laden and number two on the list of wanted of Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) of USA is also reportedly hiding in Pakistan. Although USA and Pakistani commandos are conducting search operations, the terrorist leaders are still at large. It is nearly five years since the hunt for these criminals is on inside Pakistan. America claims that when a person chooses to hide, his capture becomes very difficult. It is also claimed by US government that nearly three fourths of Al Qaeda leaders engaged in 9/11 attack and plotters are already eliminated in the war on terror (2). As a matter of fact although Taliban and Al Qaeda are different organizations both are synonymous to each other and are to be tackled with equal vigor, determination and ferocity. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (KSM) one of the king pins of the terrorist attack on WTC was arrested in Pakistan and was held captive for three years and is now in US prison at Guantanamo bay,   Cuba along with Abu Zubaydah another key figure of Al Qaeda. As a matter of fact, the importance for catching Bin Laden was reduced after war on Taliban and USA has concentrated more towards Iraq that was a bigger growing threat under Saddam Hussein.  Thus, more efforts were put towards Iraq while fight in Afghanistan was left to NATO commanders and Afghan troops. The vast and difficult countries like Afghanistan require more troops and at present only 40,000 Afghan troops are present against original planned figure of 70,000 apart from 20,000 NATO forces and 20,000 American troops. The chances of increasing NATO forces in the region are remote. The aid being received by Afghanistan from USA is reducing year after year. It was US $ 430 crores in 2004 that reduced to US $300 crores in 2006. The aid is expected to be only US $ 110 crores in 2007. Therefore, Afghan President Hamid Karzai is at a disadvantage, deprived of funds and troops to the required level and is unable to exercise full control over all the Afghan provinces.  The seven provinces adjoining Pakistan are being dominated by Taliban who carry out hit and run tactics and acts of terrorism on workers and engineers who work in various developmental projects in the country. The hand of Pakistan in kidnappings and killings of foreign workers, particularly Indians is not ruled out.                              

                               The important aspect to understand in the war on terrorism in Afghanistan in particular is the double game being played by Pakistan in this war with terrorists. It being the member of NATO is on the right side of America. However it clandestinely advocates, abets, produces, nourishes, supports, exports, quarters and arms the terrorists. Taliban is the brain child of Pakistan and they were produced in the fundamentalist Madrasas of Pakistan. The world would not be surprised if Pakistan is Talibanised in the very near future as it’s founding is based on anti Hindu tirade and hatred for non believers. Taliban has stocked large quantities of arms and ammunition very close to Kabul and is projecting itself as a strong Force to counter occupational force in Afghanistan. Taliban in the battle near Panjwai fired 400,000 rounds of ammunition and 2000 rocket propelled grenades against NATO and Afghan forces that show its preparedness and revival as a strong revived force with capability in logistics. This will not be possible without the coordination and complete connivance of Pakistan   (3).  Sadly this aspect has been overlooked by America in taking firm stand on this front and hence could not achieve the desired results till date. The most wanted leaders of all types of terrorists; cheats, thugs, drug peddlers and criminals are hiding and are being protected in Pakistan. What prevents tracking them down and hunting them if the Pakistani Government wants? USA is generally happy with occasional capturing of AlQaeda terrorist or it’s leader   in Pakistan ( 4). Pakistan signed a truce with Islamic militants in North Waziristan, a lawless province where Osama Bin Laden is reportedly hiding. But still, Laden can be arrested if the Government desires. It is essential to declare Pakistan as a terrorist State and initiate punitive actions accordingly if the hidden terrorists are to be destroyed by direct action by USA and allied forces. Till then, success for USA would be a mirage in capturing AlQaeda leadership.                        

                             The most important success for America in the terrorist hunt is the killing of Abu Musab Zarqawi by coalition forces on 7 June 2006 in Iraq, who is the mastermind for inciting and planning sectarian violence and attacks on Shiites, Iraqi and coalition troops after the termination of war in Iraq. He introduced gruesome killings such as beheadings of Shiites and suicide missions in Iraq.   However his killing will not eradicate the violence immediately.   Washington post declared “After Saddam Hussein was captured in an underground shelter near his birth place of Tikrit, there was wide spread speculation that the insurgency would weaken but violence has steadily escalated”. In fact, the training camps of Zarqawi in Kurdish areas in Iraq were highlighted with video clips by Colin Powell in his statement made at the UN General Assembly on Feb 2, 2003 justifying an armed attack on Iraq by the coalition forces. It is generally claimed by the cynics that the intelligence provided was questionable and Zarqawi was over projected by USA. As per Ms Napoleoni, an author and Fulbright research scholar,   it is   believed that Zarqawi differed with Bin Laden at a meeting in Kandhahar somewhere in 2000 on the priorities of terrorist plans. While Bin Laden preferred attacks on USA, Zarqawi opted for attacks on Arab countries such as Jordan and Israel and accordingly set up terrorist training camps in Iraq. Zarqawi attacked Shiites while Laden wanted attacks on US establishments and Americans. After the 9/11 attacks and war with Taliban, he fled to Iraq (5). Critics comment that Zarqawi was a small time criminal described by Jordan as a Street Thug  who was much elevated by America and  this was also confirmed by Bloomfield(6). Abu Al Masri an Egyptian is believed to be the successor to Zarqawi in Iraq as per the statement issued by Pentagon attributed to Major General William Caldwell while terrorist web sites announced Abdullah Ibn Rashid Baghdadi as the leader of resistance group in Iraq including Al Qaeda. America projects the leader and successor to Zarqawi to be a foreigner while the terrorists are projecting him to be the homegrown leader. With elimination of Zarqawi, it is generally expected that the attacks would be more on Iraqi forces and US establishments and troops. It is hoped that sectarian killings and violence would reduce.

                  The aspect of Al Qaeda getting stronger and still committed to the philosophy of terror was unveiled with the recent exposure of the master plot to blow up US bound air liners from London in UK in mid air (7). The plot was exposed in August 2006 before it took shape and required material such as liquid explosives were being collected for the execution. It was discovered that most of the offenders were Pakistani born men, some brought up in UK leading to a pointing finger to Pakistan as a troublesome State. Abu Faraj Al-Libbi was earlier involved in an assassination attempt on President Musharraf of Pakistan that he escaped at Rawalpindi in December 2005. The plot was exposed with arrest of Rashid Rauf and connection of Al Qaeda to the hijack plot was established. Rashid Rauf was involved in the murder of his uncle in England and was sought by British police and Rashid was living in Pakistan. Thus Al Qaeda’s no 3 was identified as the mastermind for the plot. However Philip Bobbit a Texan scholar and a former Professor in University of Texas is of opinion that the global center of Islamic terror is not in Pakistan or Afghanistan or Saudi Arabia. The most important cell for 9/11 was not in Jeddah. It was in Hamburg of Germany and that this would improve. As per him, the nations must be capable of defending when they do not know who was hitting them. Every idea that is entertained about terrorism and war on terror and its relation with wars on terror is wrong (8). However President Bush in his speech on patriots day declared, “We declared it a harbinger of a new clash of civilizations, a global ideological struggle”, World War III in Newt Gingrich’s words. In May 2004, Attorney General John Ashcroft said that Al Qaeda preparations were 90 % complete for a fresh attack Americans were rather prepared for the expected acts of terrorism on the day of political conventions, Presidential campaign, on Election Day and after Election Day. However no such thing happened. What actually is preventing them for carrying out the attack? Asked Mueller, a political scientist of Ohio State University in an article in Foreign Affairs of September issue? As per him, there were not sufficient terrorists to take up the challenge of attacking USA main land and as a matter of fact, the threat of terrorism has reduced after the 9/11 attack due the severe retaliation by USA and coalition forces. Terrorists may find many volunteers to carry out terrorist operations in countries such as Chechnya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and India as disorder rules in these countries. But they will not find many competent terrorists to conduct operations in advanced and orderly countries where people and Government try to stop them. Compared with Communist countries with nuclear weapons, the threat posed by Al Qaeda or other terrorists is not significant; Mueller argues (9). But one should remember that Communist States were rather responsible States and they had some form of orderly government although they differed on ideological fronts with West and they were not terrorists. But terrorists are irresponsible and cowardly killers who are least bothered for the consequences. They have no state of their own.  The point to note is whether America can relax with such Ostrich attitude recommended by some of its own men that no one was capable of striking the main land as per the claim of distinguished Mueller? Attack on WTC and Pentagon have taken place due to the failure and laxity in Home Land Security Systems and inability in keeping a track on the potential terrorists in the country and excessive liberty that back fired. Can USA again slide back to the original state of pre 9/11 period? Next time, it could be a nuclear disaster with a dirty bomb in one of the cities or in the same city, if security is relaxed. Terrorists wait and watch for any length of time and would attack when they are sure of success and these have to be countered. America need not be a global police man. But it has to protect itself from the terrorists and it’s interests in the world. A wise man would destroy the enemy before he becomes strong than wait for him to grow and attack. Most of the warfare throughout the history of mankind has been conducted on this principle and they have succeeded. Al Qaeda at present might be weak and even insignificant as per some analysts. But it’s threat can not be underestimated at any point of time. The war against them must continue in full spirit and vigor till they are liquidated.  Many Americans do not like the changes in internal security systems and Home Land Security Systems that President Bush introduced that are not palatable to them and consider these to be against the liberty for which USA stands for. But Liberty in any country does not mean   free for all. When national security is at risk, certain restrictions are a must in any country and these are not anti Liberty actions. Why a patriot should worry for these actions? It however does not mean or meant that all others who do not agree with President Bush are not patriots. America should never consider that the threat of Al Qaeda has reduced. The terrorists are not bothered who is in power in USA. It may be Republicans or Democrats. George W Bush or some one else may be the President of USA. But for terrorists, every one is a mere American and he is to be destroyed. This fact should be understood by the Americans and some of them are probably basking in glory of success at the November 2006 polls. Withdrawal from Iraq does not make Al Qaeda a “Hoi Buddy” or “Hoi Folks” and a bosom friend of Democrats either who won the elections basically on the issue of Iraq war and a hate campaign against their President. A country should be always prepared for war if it has to succeed in this world.                               

                           The fundamental principle of Al Qaeda organization is to establish a world Islamic State and is the staunch supporter of Wahaabi Islam that preaches that any one who does not subscribe to it’s views is heretic and need to be eliminated. Apart from non Muslims, even Muslims    who do not subscribe to their views are it’s enemies. They would wage war against them. Thus in Principle Iran, Iraq, Jordon, Egypt and other minor Arabian Sultanates are its enemies. Zarqawis actions in Iraq are based on these principles. With removal of Zarqawi from the scene that had his own way, the path of Laden (If alive) has been cleared and Al Qaeda would concentrate on American targets. If American troops have to withdraw from Iraq, it can not be arbitrary and instead of forcing a united democracy in a beleaguered nation, the three regions should be made autonomous with suitable distribution of oil revenue as some areas do not have oil wealth. The regions must be under the international supervision under UNO and a strong peace keeping force. Al Qaeda thus would be mostly limited to Afghan region. Once Pakistan is disciplined and kept under the thumb, elimination of the hiding terrorist leaders including Bin Laden should be an easier task to USA and NATO forces. The problem is that President George W Bush has only two years of presidency left now and his position has been weakened by the success of Democrats in both Houses. Still there is a time for rescheduling the tasks and vigorous following. America therefore slowly and effectively should disengage from Iraq and concentrate on catching the AlQaeda leaders in Pakistan and discipline Pakistan which is the root cause for the problem. In this context the remarks on fifth anniversary of 9/11 by Mr Natwar Singh  a distinguished former Foreign Minister of India are highly relevant. He said “…9/11 was a grim reminder of what a tiny group of Jihadis can do-3000 dead in two buildings in New York alone. This is a mass murder- War by other means. It is not a clash of civilizations. It is a clash between bigots, extremists and terrorists on the one hand and the humane, the enlightened and the truly courageous on the other. Mere words, or is there something sure and solid behind them? There is. Iron will, strong nerves, sustained and relentless hunting of terrorists are the need of the hour. Humankind can not afford to groan and moan. No need to despair and lament. We must never appear helpless. We, homosapiens must unite to destroy the evil source which sustains the terrorists (10)”. The strong action which President George W Bush took on his shoulders must go on relentlessly till the terrorists are destroyed. It is the noble duty of all Americans to ensure its successful end. One must remember that war against terrorism is not an easy one. It is long drawn and requires great determination, guts, tempo,   patience, courage and commitment that the President has displayed as a distinguished leader in the most difficult times of American History. The ups and downs in a democracy are very common where personal interests of a group clash with national interests. But the aims should be clear and must be pursued vigorously till achieved. Americans as proven leaders in the world must ensure that the evil of terrorism is wiped out of trace without any mercy.