CAN INDIA BE COMPLACENT ABOUT PAK NUKES?                                            Prof Dr Colonel K Prabhakar Rao 

               India and Pakistan have become nuclear states, but not nuclear powers. Both the nations can not sustain long war and would economically collapse soon. The effects of war on both countries would be disastrous and their growth would be pushed by decades. This happened in the past. Although India claims to be advanced, yet it is a third world country plagued by poverty, unemployment, corruption and disease. Pakistan is no different and stands next to India. Yet both countries have spent very heavily on military strength and arsenal. India developed nuclear arsenal while poverty remained greatly in the country. Countering Pakistan was more important to India than improving economic conditions of people.  Both the countries are highly dependent on other nations for oil. Oil dictates the outcome of war and both countries can not sustain long war and would collapse if the war continues over few months. This happened in past too.   Pakistan became worried after India’s first nuclear explosion during Mrs. Gandhi’s period as Prime Minister and desperately tried and achieved the status of a nuclear state. It is believed that China helped it to build the expertise under the very nose of USA. In spite of the American vigilance, probably the American aid received by Pakistan was diverted for the clandestine building of the weapons and to day it is a fait accompli. It has achieved the required aim of brow beating India now and then with nuclear threat. Pakistan has kept nuclear options open while India as a self styled true apostle of peace ( A Gandhian fad) proclaimed that it  will not be the first to use the weapon.   India too has become defensive now in view of the weapon that is surely like a stone in the hands of a lunatic. With the weapon in store Pakistan has become further bold and abetting terrorism in Kashmir and in other parts of the Country. Its complicity in Bombay attack by the Pak based terrorists is well proven and India looked- on helplessly. India had no will to fight Pakistan and in fact had no proper plans too. It only clamored as a wronged nation expecting America to bring pressure on Pakistan with repeated requests to hand over the criminals.  Even a small child in primary school will know that this strategy will not work and the culprits will not own up. It has been a great let down of the people by the Indian government. Indian prestige and honor have been eroded at the hands of the leaders who were in power at that time. In spite of four major wars Indian leaders have not learnt lessons and still grope in darkness clueless of any policy and plan to counter Pak adventurism.

                    Some arm chair strategists and pseudo experts in India claim that there is nothing to get worried about Pak nukes. They have their own theory ( Lop sided?) to support their claims. They hide their heads like ostriches hoping that all would be well.

             Pakistan  at present in great turmoil and is facing stiff challenges from Pak Taliban and al Qaeda and  its army is fighting bitterly in North west. In spite of the grave situation, Pak is likely to  consider India as a serious threat and would do all to  maintain tensions with India. A top US military official recently  said Pakistan is unlikely to lose focus on India, even as it has begun to realize the serious danger by the terrorists within the country. "It's my view they are not going to lose their focus on India”. Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a Congressional hearing recently ( 1) President Barrack Obama says that Pakistan's 'large' nuclear arsenal is a worry for India and the U.S especially at a time when terror outfits like Al Qaeda and Taliban are trying to get such weapons. The President's comments coincided with the release of the latest satellite photos which revealed that Pakistan is multiplying its nuclear arsenal much beyond its present stable of 60 to 100 weapons and increasing their destructive power and deliverability system. He also said, “"We do not want a world of continued nuclear proliferation and that in order for us to meet the security challenges in the future America has to take the leadership in this area," he added. Thus there is no doubt that India faces serious threat from Pak on the nuclear front while our pseudo strategists with Ostrich attitude think other way.  The attitude was similar during the reign of Late Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru and he did not expect any threat from China and rubbed shoulders with China vigorously and the   rest is history. Indian army suffered the most shameful defeat at the hands of Chinese army that still haunts them.

              On the other front, US is preparing to fund billions of dollars to Pakistan and infact this aid  will be used to bolster the Pak nuke programme. Thus US is indirectly  boosting Pak nuclear arsenal while Obama  assures that  Pak nukes would not fall into Taliban’s  hands.  News of Islamabad’s accelerated nuclear weapons program, was  exposed by US satellite imagery and reported in  the news  , is being scrutinized in the light of the administration-backed Congress move to pump billions of dollars of US aid into Pakistan. . Confirmation   by US’ highest military official, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, that Pakistan is indeed ramping up its weapons program, had added a sense of urgency to the review, particularly since the aid package is being finalized this week. Thus US is embarking on a dangerous path and in the end it might find itself at a precarious end unable to do any thing.
 New York Times reported that members of Congress have been told in confidential briefings that Pakistan is rapidly adding to its nuclear arsenal, ''raising questions on Capitol Hill about whether billions of dollars in proposed military aid might be diverted to Pakistan’s nuclear program.’ (3)

                   How safe it is  now to abet Pak nuclear program in present situation. US knows it best. Can  this be seen as a serious threat to India as an attempt to  cut India to size as a global policy by America? In all probabilities it is sure. India is fast growing internationally economically, militarily and industrially. Recently it has succeeded in its mission to moon.  India  has successfully tested all types of  missiles and is emerging as a  major power in the region. The global economic depression has  not affected  very seriously although tremors are felt in India. In fact there is no nuclear threat to Pak from India. Rather Pak waged many wars with India  over Kashmir and Indian  actions were only in defense. The breakup of greater Pakistan is its own doing.
In this context Roger Chaplin’s comment is very illustrative that states:-

 : ''In exchange for a hefty aid package, (Pakistan,  Iran, and North Korea) should allow the internationally supervised destruction of any and all nuclear weapons and facilities, along with ongoing foolproof inspections, or we will destroy them together with any retaliatory capabilities we deem necessary,'' was the message Conservative commentator Roger Chapin of the organization Make America Safe, wanted Washington to send out.

 ''Respecting the so-called sovereign rights of nations cannot even be a consideration when they pose a menace to our national security. Nor can Pakistan's professed need to be able to counter India's nuclear capabilities, especially since India threatens no one.''  

                    Thus it is noticed that Obama is playing double game. On one front he assures that Pak nukes will not fall to Taliban and he has all confidence in Pak army’s  ability in guarding them. On the other front he is  allowing them to build more such weapons. What for? Can he perceive that India  is  a major threat to Pak?  What is the basis?  Billons of dollars aid that is likely to be pumped into Pakistan will allow Pakistan to divert its own money or a major portion of aid for further building the  nuclear weapons. In fact USA must tell Pakistan in no uncertain terms that destroying its nukes is the first requirement for any aid to Pak. unless this is done USA would be digging its own grave in the region. It is also necessary for India to take note of the latest development an plan its own course of action to counter the treat. Singing Ramdhun will surely not help India.

                  It will be worth drawing the attention of all  about attack on Somanth by Mahmood Ghaznavi in past. When the raider arrived  with his  fast and active army, the priests believed that Lord Shiva would surely destroy them with his third eye , but nothing of that sort happened. The raiders massacred the Pandits and  looted the temple and broke the  lingam and took away the stones to be spread  on the steps at a Kabul mosque where every day Muslims stepped on them. The stone God was mutely looking at them.

                  God helps only those who help themselves. Indians still bask in past glory of 1971 victory and are not seeing the approaching danger that is lurking around the corner.